“Democrats likely need to win nine of 10 Toss-up races for the majority.”
CAMAS, WA – On Wednesday, Roll Call ran an article laying out the math for the November elections, and the major obstacle facing Democrats as they seek to regain control of the House. One of the races highlighted was WA-03, where “Republicans largely stayed away from the general election after Republican Joe Kent kept GOP Rep. Jamie Herrera Beutler from winning one of the top two spots in the primary.” This narrative supports the message of the Lewallen campaign: it is imperative that Republicans regain control of Washington’s 3rd Congressional district seat; and that starts with picking a candidate who can bring Republicans back to the ballot box – something Joe Kent was unable to accomplish!
Race to House Majority Runs Through the 10 Toss-Ups
By: Nathan L. Gonzales, Roll Call
. . . Democrats have a path to the House majority. It just involves winning virtually all of the Toss-up races.
On the other hand, even though Republicans are seeing their current House majority shrink with each passing resignation, the GOP is better-positioned to maintain control of the House a little more than seven months before Election Day.
Currently, the math is easier for Republicans if they win the races they are currently favored to win. The 187 races rated as Solid Republican by Inside Elections, added to the 29 races rated as Likely, Lean, or Tilt Republican gets the GOP to 216 seats. That means Republicans need to win just two of the 10 Toss-up races to get to 218.
The math is more difficult for Democrats. Adding the 174 races rated as Solid Democratic to the 35 races rated as Likely, Lean, or Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections gets the Democrats to 209 seats. That means Democrats need to win nine of 10 Toss-up races to get to 218.
. . . So how difficult is Democrats’ path in the Toss-up races?
Usually, the easiest way to gain seats is to hold your own first. That doesn’t look too difficult considering Biden won nine of the 10 Toss-up districts in 2020, including three seats with a Democratic incumbent
. . . But Biden won those districts with an average of 51 percent in 2020, and there’s no guarantee he will do it again as an unpopular incumbent seeking reelection. With a high correlation between presidential and House results (just 16 districts split their ticket in 2020), that will make it more difficult for Democratic candidates to hold those seats.
The only Toss-up race in a district that President Donald Trump carried is Washington’s 3rd District, represented by Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. She won by less than 1 point in 2022 while Republicans largely stayed away from the general election after Republican Joe Kent kept GOP Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler from winning one of the top two spots in the primary. Republicans will go after Gluesenkamp Perez this time around and Trump may do even better in the district.
. . . This down-to-the-last race scenario also assumes that the presidential race remains close and competitive and neither candidate veers too far from their 2020 performance. But if the 2024 presidential race gets lopsided in either direction, that will affect the Toss-up races and the entire House battlefield.
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